Mexico's foreign trade is facing a challenging landscape due to two key developments: the Trump administration's intention to bring forward the review of the USMCA and the implementation of the new General Rules of Foreign Trade (RGCE). Both developments have the potential to impact strategic sectors and reshape trade dynamics between Mexico, the United States, and Canada.
Donald Trump's Push for an Early USMCA Review
Since returning to the presidency, Donald Trump has made clear his interest in accelerating the review of the USMCA, which was originally scheduled for 2026. His approach focuses on tightening the agreement's rules to benefit U.S. industries, particularly the automotive sector.
Key Proposed Changes:
- Automotive Sector: Trump is seeking to modify USMCA rules to discourage automakers from operating manufacturing facilities outside the United States.
- Tariffs: He has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada.
Mexico's Response
President Claudia Sheinbaum has emphasized the importance of cooperation and warned that a trade war would harm both economies. According to experts, this trade strategy could also serve as a political tool to address other issues, such as migration and illicit trafficking.
Implementation of the 2025 General Rules of Foreign Trade
On January 1, 2025, Mexico's new General Rules of Foreign Trade (RGCE) came into effect after being previously published in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF). These amendments aim to strengthen oversight of customs operations and increase efficiency in import and export processes.
Key Changes to the RGCE:
- Donation of Goods: Rule 3.3.18 was added, establishing the procedure for requesting authorization to donate temporarily imported goods to the Federal Treasury.
- Access to Risk Analysis Systems: Courier and parcel companies must provide customs authorities with online access to their risk analysis systems. The corresponding documentation must be submitted before January 31, 2025.
- 19% Global Tax Rate: A 19% tax rate applies to goods imported under the simplified procedure, except for those covered by the USMCA and other international trade agreements. Exemptions remain in place for low-value goods valued at less than USD $50.
Impact on Mexico's Foreign Trade
Regulatory initiatives and proposals from the Trump administration present both challenges and opportunities for Mexico:
- Automotive Sector: An early review of the USMCA could significantly alter operating rules, affecting the competitiveness of Mexico's automotive industry.
- Stronger Regulatory Oversight: The RGCE seek to increase transparency and control in foreign trade operations, strengthening customs oversight.
- Business Adaptation: Companies must stay informed about these changes and adjust their strategies to minimize risks and take advantage of emerging opportunities.
Mexico is at a crucial moment for its foreign trade, facing both domestic regulatory changes and external pressures. The ability of businesses to adapt to this dynamic environment will be key to their success. Staying informed about regulations and bilateral cooperation is essential to ensuring that trade operations remain competitive and sustainable.
Sources:El País / El Financiero / PwC / OpenAI
